00:08:52 <xiphon> https://i.ibb.co/TR98hdG/plot.png
00:09:46 <xiphon> Doesn't look like a modified output selection algo to me
00:11:45 <xiphon> "Max output age per ring" is actually "Output age per ring" (i.e. plotted all rings' decoy outputs ages)
00:25:21 <xiphon> Detailed output age plot:
00:25:24 <xiphon> https://i.ibb.co/0YpVJqZ/plot-outputs.png
00:33:11 <xiphon> Both represent last ~24 days
00:34:11 <xiphon> Sorry, there is a mistake in both "Output age" plots, wrong sorting
00:34:16 <xiphon> The correct ones:
00:34:33 <xiphon> https://i.ibb.co/kgv9mFd/plot.png
00:34:36 <xiphon> https://i.ibb.co/RpXFgQ4/plot-outputs.png
00:40:13 <UkoeHB__> i wonder what the banding is about.. rounding maybe?
00:51:02 <xiphon> ^ they are actually slopes raising consistently with the block number
01:12:42 <xiphon> 4.74 rings per block are having all decoys less than 7 days old on average
01:14:32 <xiphon> If the attacker controls 50% of the recent outputs, they have 1/1024 chance to deanonymize of these rings after a week
01:14:46 <xiphon> *one of these rings
01:17:04 <xiphon> so after a week of attack 4.74 rings per block * 720 blocks per day = 3412.8 rings (<7d outputs) per day
01:18:13 <xiphon> ~3 deanonymized 1-in txes per day
01:18:40 <xiphon> and growing if the attack continues
01:20:22 <sgp_> 4.74 rings per block? is that how you are describing the attack spam level?
01:21:43 <xiphon> that's ~24d stats
01:22:12 <xiphon> 4.74 rings per block are having all decoys less than 7d old
01:22:32 <sgp_> ah I see sorry
03:54:37 <gingeropolous> aight so where do things stand
03:55:52 <sethsimmons> Which things?
03:56:19 <gingeropolous> the things with the transactions
03:56:49 <sethsimmons> Ah, my understanding is that it was a misunderstanding with how decoy selection changes with increased transaction count over time, and that it’s expected behavior.
03:56:58 <sethsimmons> But someone else please correct me if I’m wrong.
03:58:38 <sethsimmons> The transaction count jumping 12k overnight was odd but explainable in theory, and not WAY past the norm lately.
04:02:25 <nioc> gingeropolous: it is a bit unclear
04:02:28 <nioc> we should just increase the ringsize to a BIG number
04:06:19 <gingeropolous> i mean, agreed. But decoys still probably need a better selection mechanism. And making it enforcable would be nice.... so i don't think its as easy as cranking the knob to 1024
04:10:55 <nioc> oh look ^^^ :)
04:11:12 <gingeropolous> ?
04:12:00 <nioc> I echoed your refrain which resulted in you saying something more measured
04:12:31 <nioc> this concludes my noise in this channel for the reminder of the year
04:12:36 <nioc> <3
04:13:05 <gingeropolous> :) ah its late. there's no machinery on, all the math has been put back in the shelves for the night
04:39:20 <ArticMine> sgp_> ArticMine: what's keeping us from increasing the base fee? <--- I am considering setting it close to the normal fee level. That is defined by being able to mine a tx ~3000 bytes. So about 4-5x the current value
12:26:39 <moneromooo> The full set of txes has a much less pronounced bias than the original sample that was checked.
12:27:13 <moneromooo> This is not really relevant though, it's still possible to do it regardless.
15:28:49 <xstatic2012> Prove that you really have the most critical thinking community. Come to https://t.me/get_monero and let's discuss things like adults.
15:29:03 <sarang> how unexpected
15:42:26 <ErCiccione[m]> I removed the message from matrix. I hope nobody is falling for that
16:52:05 <netrik182[m]> Not visible on matrix ErCiccione
16:53:08 <ErCiccione[m]> should show as removed
16:55:13 <netrik182[m]> that's it. Shows as deleted
17:00:23 <ErCiccione[m]> yeah that was my intent. They still see it on freenode